Spatial targeting of infectious disease control: identifying multiple, unknown sources

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Population sensitivity of acute flaccid paralysis and environmental surveillance for serotype 1 poliovirus in Pakistan: an observational study

Background To support poliomyelitis eradication in Pakistan, environmental surveillance (ES) of wastewater has been expanded alongside surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP). ES is a relatively new method of surveillance, and the population sensitivity of detecting poliovirus within endemic settings requires estimation. Methods Data for wild serotype 1 poliovirus from AFP and ES from January 2011 to September 2015 from 14 districts in Pakistan were analysed using a multi-state model framework. This framework was used to estimate the sensitivity of poliovirus detection from each surveillance source and parameters such as the duration of infection within a community. Results The location and timing of poliomyelitis cases showed spatial and temporal variability. The sensitivity of AFP surveillance to detect serotype 1 poliovirus infection in a district and its neighbours per month was on average 30.0% (95% CI 24.8–35.8) and increased with the incidence of poliomyelitis cases. The average population sensitivity of a single environmental sample was 59.4% (95% CI 55.4–63.0), with significant variation in site-specific estimates (median varied from 33.3–79.2%). The combined population sensitivity of environmental and AFP surveillance in a given month was on average 98.1% (95% CI 97.2–98.7), assuming four samples per month for each site. Conclusions ES can be a highly sensitive supplement to AFP surveillance in areas with converging sewage systems. As ES for poliovirus is expanded, it will be important to identify factors associated with variation in site sensitivity, leading to improved site selection and surveillance system performance

Session 18: Geothermal Well Stimulation - Program Summary and the Beowawe Field Experiment

Republic Geothermal, Inc. and its subcontractors have planned and executed laboratory studies and eight well stimulation field experiments under the Geothermal Reservoir Well Stimulation Program (GRWSP). The program, begun in February 1979, has concentrated on extending petroleum industry stimulation technology for use by the geothermal industry. The most recent experiment was in a naturally fractured Chevron well at Beowawe and involved an acid stimulation of a damaged interval which yielded a 2.3-fold increase in injectivity. Overall results to date have shown that stimulation is viable where adequate reservoirs are penetrated by wells encountering formation damage or locally tight formations. However, wells in marginal naturally fractured reservoirs have not been saved by the types of well stimulation jobs performed thus far. A recent discovery is that many wells can possibly be made outstanding producers by widening and propping compliant natural fractures. Confirmation of this constitutes unfinished business of the GRWSP, and offers one of the greatest potential opportunities for enhancing the economics of geothermal power production

The Butterfly Fauna Of The Italian Maritime Alps:Results Of The «Edit» Project

Bonelli, Simona, Barbero, Francesca, Casacci, Luca Pietro, Cerrato, Cristiana, Balletto, Emilio (2015): The butterfly fauna of the Italian Maritime Alps: results of the EDIT project. Zoosystema 37 (1): 139-167, DOI: 10.5252/z2015n1a6, URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.5252/z2015n1a

An overview of systematic reviews of complementary and alternative therapies for fibromyalgia using both AMSTAR and ROBIS as quality assessment tools

Abstract Background Fibromyalgia (FM) is a chronic, debilitating pain disorder. Dissatisfaction with conventional medicine can lead people with FM to turn to complementary and alternative medicine (CAM). Two previous overviews of systematic reviews of CAM for FM have been published, but they did not assessed for risk of bias in the review process. Methods Five databases Medline, Embase, AMED (via OVID), Web of Science and Central were searched from their inception to December 2015. Reference lists were hand-searched. We had two aims: the first was to provide an up-to-date and rigorously conducted synthesis of systematic reviews of CAM literature on FM; the second was to evaluate the quality of the available systematic review evidence using two different tools: AMSTAR (Shea et al. BMC Med Res Methodol 15; 7:10, 2007) and a more recently developed tool ROBIS (Whiting et al. J Clin Epidemiol 69:225-34, 2016) specifically designed to assess risk of bias in systematic reviews. Any review that assessed one of eight CAM therapies for participants diagnosed with FM was considered. The individual studies had to be randomised controlled trials where the intervention was compared to placebo, treatment as usual or waitlist controls to be included. The primary outcome measure was pain, and the secondary outcome measure was adverse events. Results We identified 15 reviews that met inclusion criteria. There was low-quality evidence that acupuncture improves pain compared to no treatment or standard treatment, but good evidence that it is no better than sham acupuncture. The evidence for homoeopathy, spinal manipulation and herbal medicine was limited. Conclusions Overall, five reviews scored 6 or above using the AMSTAR scale and the inter-rater agreement was good (83.6%), whereas seven reviews achieved a low risk of bias rating using ROBIS and the inter-rater agreement was fair (60.0%). No firm conclusions were drawn for efficacy of either spinal manipulation or homoeopathy for FM. There is limited evidence for topical Capsicum, but further research is required. There is some evidence to support the effectiveness of acupuncture for FM, but further high-quality trials are needed to investigate its benefits, harms and mechanisms of action, compared with no or standard treatment. Systematic review registration PROSPERO CRD42016035846

A new universal system of tree shape indices

The comparison and categorization of tree diagrams is fundamental to large parts of biology, linguistics, computer science, and other fields, yet the indices currently applied to describing tree shape have important flaws that complicate their interpretation and limit their scope. Here we introduce a new system of indices with no such shortcomings. Our indices account for node sizes and branch lengths and are robust to small changes in either attribute. Unlike currently popular phylogenetic diversity, phylogenetic entropy, and tree balance indices, our definitions assign interpretable values to all rooted trees and enable meaningful comparison of any pair of trees. Our self-consistent definitions further unite measures of diversity, richness, balance, symmetry, effective height, effective outdegree, and effective branch count in a coherent system, and we derive numerous simple relationships between these indices. The main practical advantages of our indices are in 1) quantifying diversity in non-ultrametric trees; 2) assessing the balance of trees that have non-uniform branch lengths or node sizes; 3) comparing the balance of trees with different leaf counts or outdegrees; 4) obtaining a coherent, generic, multidimensional quantification of tree shape that is robust to sampling error and inferential error. We illustrate these features by comparing the shapes of trees representing the evolution of HIV and of Uralic languages. Given the ubiquity of tree structures, we identify a wide range of applications across diverse domains

Nitrogen recycling in coastal waters of southeastern U.S. during summer 1986

Summer-time pelagic nitrogen recycling using an 15NH4+ tracer technique was studied for important biological pathways, sinks, and residence times in the microbial food web of coastal Georgia, U.S.A. Results showed that estimated rates of NH4+ regeneration by a variety of microheterotrophs and microzooplankton balanced rates of NH4+ assimilation by the microbial community, i.e., phytoplankton, bacteria and other microheterotrophs, in surface waters. In bottom water below the 1% light level, NH4+ regeneration exceeded community NH4+ assimilation by 3.5 times. However, over a period of 2 weeks, high NH4+ concentrations rarely occurred in bottom waters, and this was attributed to rapid mixing of the water column by winds and tides. Estimated mixing times from time-dependent numerical models were on the order of NH4+ turnover times of 5 to 10 hours. Overall, rates of community NH4+ assimilation exceeded rate estimates of phytoplankton N demand by 1.8 to 2.7 fold, which were made from rates of 14CO2 incorporation into proteins. In bottom samples where phytoplankton were light limited, rates of NH4+ assimilation exceeded the phytoplankton N demand by 3.6 to 11.1 fold. Calculations concerning the role of dissolved organic nitrogen in N cycling suggest that only 10% is recycled to NH4+ daily. This N could support 12 to 29% of the estimated phytoplankton N demand. Residence times of particulate nitrogen pools, based on rates of NH4+ regeneration, were on the order of 3–10 days. During summer-time hydrographic conditions and despite other losses, particulate nitrogen could recycle as often as 100 times before autumn removal processes occur off southeastern U.S